A multi-disciplinary perspective on emergent and future innovations in peer review [version 2; referees: 2 approved]

Peer review of research articles is a core part of our scholarly communication system. In spite of its importance, the status and purpose of peer review is often contested. What is its role in our modern digital research and communications infrastructure? Does it perform to the high standards with which it is generally regarded? Studies of peer review have shown that it is prone to bias and abuse in numerous dimensions, frequently unreliable, and can fail to detect even fraudulent research. With the advent of web technologies, we are now witnessing a phase of innovation and experimentation in our approaches to peer review. These developments prompted us to examine emerging models of peer review from a range of disciplines and venues, and to ask how they might address some of the issues with our current systems of peer review. We examine the functionality of a range of social Web platforms, and compare these with the traits underlying a viable peer review system: quality control, quantified performance metrics as engagement incentives, and certification and reputation. Ideally, any new systems will demonstrate that they out-perform and reduce the biases of existing models as much as possible. We conclude that there is considerable scope for new peer review initiatives to be developed, each with their own potential issues and advantages. We also propose a novel hybrid platform model that could, at least partially, resolve many of the socio-technical issues associated with peer review, and potentially disrupt the entire scholarly communication system. Success for any such development relies on reaching a critical threshold of research community engagement with both the process and the platform, and therefore cannot be achieved without a significant change of incentives in research environments

Development of a diagnostic protocol for dizziness in elderly patients in general practice: a Delphi procedure

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>Dizziness in general practice is very common, especially in elderly patients. The empirical evidence for diagnostic tests in the evaluation of dizziness is scarce. Aim of our study was to determine which set of diagnostic tests should be part of a diagnostic protocol for evaluating dizziness in elderly patients in general practice.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>We conducted a Delphi procedure with a panel of 16 national and international experts of all relevant medical specialities in the field of dizziness. A selection of 36 diagnostic tests, based on a systematic review and practice guidelines, was presented to the panel. Each test was described extensively, and data on test characteristics and methodological quality (assessed with the Quality Assessment of Diagnostic Accuracy Studies, QUADAS) were presented. The threshold for in- or exclusion of a diagnostic test was set at an agreement of 70%.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>During three rounds 21 diagnostic tests were selected, concerning patient history (4 items), physical examination (11 items), and additional tests (6 items). Five tests were excluded, although they are recommended by existing practice guidelines on dizziness. Two tests were included, although several practice guidelines question their diagnostic value. Two more tests were included that have never been recommended by practice guidelines on dizziness.</p> <p>Conclusion</p> <p>In this study we successfully combined empirical evidence with expert opinion for the development of a set of diagnostic tests for evaluating dizziness in elderly patients. This comprehensive set of tests will be evaluated in a cross-sectional diagnostic study.</p

Importance of patient bed pathways and length of stay differences in predicting COVID-19 hospital bed occupancy in England.

BACKGROUND: Predicting bed occupancy for hospitalised patients with COVID-19 requires understanding of length of stay (LoS) in particular bed types. LoS can vary depending on the patient's "bed pathway" - the sequence of transfers of individual patients between bed types during a hospital stay. In this study, we characterise these pathways, and their impact on predicted hospital bed occupancy. METHODS: We obtained data from University College Hospital (UCH) and the ISARIC4C COVID-19 Clinical Information Network (CO-CIN) on hospitalised patients with COVID-19 who required care in general ward or critical care (CC) beds to determine possible bed pathways and LoS. We developed a discrete-time model to examine the implications of using either bed pathways or only average LoS by bed type to forecast bed occupancy. We compared model-predicted bed occupancy to publicly available bed occupancy data on COVID-19 in England between March and August 2020. RESULTS: In both the UCH and CO-CIN datasets, 82% of hospitalised patients with COVID-19 only received care in general ward beds. We identified four other bed pathways, present in both datasets: "Ward, CC, Ward", "Ward, CC", "CC" and "CC, Ward". Mean LoS varied by bed type, pathway, and dataset, between 1.78 and 13.53 days. For UCH, we found that using bed pathways improved the accuracy of bed occupancy predictions, while only using an average LoS for each bed type underestimated true bed occupancy. However, using the CO-CIN LoS dataset we were not able to replicate past data on bed occupancy in England, suggesting regional LoS heterogeneities. CONCLUSIONS: We identified five bed pathways, with substantial variation in LoS by bed type, pathway, and geography. This might be caused by local differences in patient characteristics, clinical care strategies, or resource availability, and suggests that national LoS averages may not be appropriate for local forecasts of bed occupancy for COVID-19. TRIAL REGISTRATION: The ISARIC WHO CCP-UK study ISRCTN66726260 was retrospectively registered on 21/04/2020 and designated an Urgent Public Health Research Study by NIHR

Measurement of atmospheric neutrino mixing with improved IceCube DeepCore calibration and data processing

We describe a new data sample of IceCube DeepCore and report on the latest measurement of atmospheric neutrino oscillations obtained with data recorded between 2011–2019. The sample includes significant improvements in data calibration, detector simulation, and data processing, and the analysis benefits from a sophisticated treatment of systematic uncertainties, with significantly greater level of detail since our last study. By measuring the relative fluxes of neutrino flavors as a function of their reconstructed energies and arrival directions we constrain the atmospheric neutrino mixing parameters to be sin2θ23=0.51±0.05 and Δm232=2.41±0.07×10−3  eV2, assuming a normal mass ordering. The errors include both statistical and systematic uncertainties. The resulting 40% reduction in the error of both parameters with respect to our previous result makes this the most precise measurement of oscillation parameters using atmospheric neutrinos. Our results are also compatible and complementary to those obtained using neutrino beams from accelerators, which are obtained at lower neutrino energies and are subject to different sources of uncertainties

Search for Extended Sources of Neutrino Emission in the Galactic Plane with IceCube

The Galactic plane, harboring a diffuse neutrino flux, is a particularly interesting target to study potential cosmic-ray acceleration sites. Recent gamma-ray observations by HAWC and LHAASO have presented evidence for multiple Galactic sources that exhibit a spatially extended morphology and have energy spectra continuing beyond 100 TeV. A fraction of such emission could be produced by interactions of accelerated hadronic cosmic rays, resulting in an excess of high-energy neutrinos clustered near these regions. Using 10 years of IceCube data comprising track-like events that originate from charged-current muon neutrino interactions, we perform a dedicated search for extended neutrino sources in the Galaxy. We find no evidence for time-integrated neutrino emission from the potential extended sources studied in the Galactic plane. The most significant location, at 2.6$\sigma$ post-trials, is a 1.7$^\circ$ sized region coincident with the unidentified TeV gamma-ray source 3HWC J1951+266. We provide strong constraints on hadronic emission from several regions in the Galaxy.Comment: 13 pages, 4 figures, 5 tables including an appendix. Accepted for publication in Astrophysical Journa

Measurement of Atmospheric Neutrino Mixing with Improved IceCube DeepCore Calibration and Data Processing

We describe a new data sample of IceCube DeepCore and report on the latest measurement of atmospheric neutrino oscillations obtained with data recorded between 2011-2019. The sample includes significant improvements in data calibration, detector simulation, and data processing, and the analysis benefits from a detailed treatment of systematic uncertainties, with significantly higher level of detail since our last study. By measuring the relative fluxes of neutrino flavors as a function of their reconstructed energies and arrival directions we constrain the atmospheric neutrino mixing parameters to be $\sin^2\theta_{23} = 0.51\pm 0.05$ and $\Delta m^2_{32} = 2.41\pm0.07\times 10^{-3}\mathrm{eV}^2$, assuming a normal mass ordering. The resulting 40\% reduction in the error of both parameters with respect to our previous result makes this the most precise measurement of oscillation parameters using atmospheric neutrinos. Our results are also compatible and complementary to those obtained using neutrino beams from accelerators, which are obtained at lower neutrino energies and are subject to different sources of uncertainties

Limits on Neutrino Emission from GRB 221009A from MeV to PeV using the IceCube Neutrino Observatory

Gamma-ray bursts (GRBs) have long been considered a possible source of high-energy neutrinos. While no correlations have yet been detected between high-energy neutrinos and GRBs, the recent observation of GRB 221009A - the brightest GRB observed by Fermi-GBM to date and the first one to be observed above an energy of 10 TeV - provides a unique opportunity to test for hadronic emission. In this paper, we leverage the wide energy range of the IceCube Neutrino Observatory to search for neutrinos from GRB 221009A. We find no significant deviation from background expectation across event samples ranging from MeV to PeV energies, placing stringent upper limits on the neutrino emission from this source.Comment: Version in ApJ Letters Focus on the Ultra-luminous Gamma-Ray Burst GRB 221009

A Search for Coincident Neutrino Emission from Fast Radio Bursts with Seven Years of IceCube Cascade Events

This paper presents the results of a search for neutrinos that are spatially and temporally coincident with 22 unique, non-repeating Fast Radio Bursts (FRBs) and one repeating FRB (FRB121102). FRBs are a rapidly growing class of Galactic and extragalactic astrophysical objects that are considered a potential source of high-energy neutrinos. The IceCube Neutrino Observatory's previous FRB analyses have solely used track events. This search utilizes seven years of IceCube's cascade events which are statistically independent of the track events. This event selection allows probing of a longer range of extended timescales due to the low background rate. No statistically significant clustering of neutrinos was observed. Upper limits are set on the time-integrated neutrino flux emitted by FRBs for a range of extended time-windows

Constraining High-energy Neutrino Emission from Supernovae with IceCube

Core-collapse supernovae are a promising potential high-energy neutrino source class. We test for correlation between seven years of IceCube neutrino data and a catalog containing more than 1000 core-collapse supernovae of types IIn and IIP and a sample of stripped-envelope supernovae. We search both for neutrino emission from individual supernovae, and for combined emission from the whole supernova sample through a stacking analysis. No significant spatial or temporal correlation of neutrinos with the cataloged supernovae was found. The overall deviation of all tested scenarios from the background expectation yields a p-value of 93% which is fully compatible with background. The derived upper limits on the total energy emitted in neutrinos are 1.7×10$^{48}$ erg for stripped-envelope supernovae, 2.8×10$^{48}$ erg for type IIP, and 1.3×10$^{49}$ erg for type IIn SNe, the latter disfavouring models with optimistic assumptions for neutrino production in interacting supernovae. We conclude that strippe-envelope supernovae and supernovae of type IIn do not contribute more than 14.6% and 33.9% respectively to the diffuse neutrino flux in the energy range of about 10$^3$−10$^5$ GeV, assuming that the neutrino energy spectrum follows a power-law with an index of −2.5. Under the same assumption, we can only constrain the contribution of type IIP SNe to no more than 59.9%. Thus core-collapse supernovae of types IIn and stripped-envelope supernovae can both be ruled out as the dominant source of the diffuse neutrino flux under the given assumptions